Simulation6 min read
The thousand lives of a single house
A sale price is a number. A future is a branching set of chances, delays and decisions.
Insights
Liquidity7 min read
The house that stayed on the market
The sale that never happened belongs in the model too.
Market agents6 min read
The buyers are not a weather system
A market is made of people whose choices alter one another.
ON THE MARKET
Transactions6 min read
An accepted offer is not money in the bank
Follow the transaction past the congratulatory call.
Scenarios6 min read
A rate rise has more than one ending
One shock can lead to several markets. The branches tell us where a plan bends.
Strategy7 min read
The price of waiting
What changes when the asking price becomes a sequence of choices?
PLACE & CHANGE
Place7 min read
The neighborhood is not one market
Two homes a few blocks apart can face very different buyers.
Volatility6 min read
When the market changes mid-sale
A simulation for the week in which every assumption moves.
FURTHER QUESTIONS
Insurance8 min read
The insurance quote arrived after the offer
The asking price stood still. The cost of buying did not.
Portfolio risk8 min read
Seven properties, one cash call
Seven plausible exits can fail together when the money is needed on the same day.
Evidence8 min read
The house with no twins
A thin market should make a forecast more candid, not more confident.
Model testing8 min read
Put the forecast on trial
A convincing simulation earns trust from the outcomes it did not train on.
Sale chains8 min read
The buyer who had to sell first
One property's deadline can depend on another property's unfinished sale.